United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is the 6th largest economy in the world. Following a severe contraction of -9.3% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UK GDP growth rebounded to 7.4% in 2021, before slowing down to 3.6% in 2022 amid persisting supply shortages and rising inflation (IMF). The IMF forecasts GDP growth to further reduce to 0.3% in 2023 and 0.6% in ita2024. The OECD projections are more pessimistic, with an expected economic contraction of 0.4% in 2023 and a return to a positive growth rate of 0.2% in ita2024. In addition to Brexit-related trade disruption, the UK is likely to continue being hit by significant supply-side constraints and acute labour shortages, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Business investment will remain subdued due to a higher cost of capital and lingering uncertainty (OECD). The UK economy recovered strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, thanks to emergency support measures and a rapid vaccine rollout. However, this rebound was accompanied by supply and labour shortages in the wake of rising global demand and higher shipping costs (OECD).

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